Tuesday 8 September 2026
Read
What changed
against the previous session13 levels moved · commentary
Levels that moved: initial balance high, initial balance low, invalidation, point of control, prior point of control, prior value area high, prior value area low, session close, session high, session low, session open, value area high, value area low.
The open type is now an open-test-drive down. The day type is now a b-shaped day. The close type is now in the bottom fifth of the range. The letters now read accepted below against prior value. The close sits below value. Value has migrated lower. The rotation trend is now stable. The volatility proxy band is now normal.
The auction
1 sessionThe session closed below value.
Against prior value the letters read accepted below, on the strict beyond by 1 tick policy.
Today's value area migrated lower against yesterday's.
Balance status: balancing.
This read is invalidated on a close above 7733 pts (prior value area high).
The open read as an open-test-drive down, and the letters read accepted below prior value, with the two value areas failing to overlap at all as value migrated lower. The close sat inside the initial balance even as the day printed as a b-shaped day and the close sat in the bottom fifth of the range. The naked POC at 7611 pts was not touched by the range, and a close above 7733 pts would undo this read.
Drift
20–60 sessionsOver the last 20-60 sessions the Drift read is mixed, so no phase is assigned.
Price sits near its average, -0.04 ATR from its reference.
The efficiency ratio over that window is 0.08.
The move is quiet.
Over these weeks the direction is mixed, and price sits near its average.That combination of no clear direction and a price sitting near its average carries over unchanged from the previous session, without a fresh lean either way.
Volatility
estimatedThe volatility proxy VIX sits in its normal band at 15.72 (estimated). The term structure is contango. ATR(14) is 70.73 pts and the expected move for one session is 0.99%.
The two horizons. The auction read (1 session) and the Drift read (20-60 sessions) are orthogonal: there is no side to compare on this session.
Levels
| Prior value area highUpper edge of yesterday's value area | 7733pts |
|---|---|
| Prior value area lowLower edge of yesterday's value area | 7715pts |
| Prior point of controlYesterday's TPO point of control: the price row with the most TPO prints (time at price) | 7720pts |
| Value area highUpper edge of today's value area | 7701pts |
| Point of controlToday's TPO point of control: the price row with the most TPO prints (time at price) | 7695pts |
| Value area lowLower edge of today's value area | 7685pts |
| Session openWhere the session opened | 7711.5pts |
|---|---|
| Session highThe session's highest price | 7717.75pts |
| Session lowThe session's lowest price | 7672.25pts |
| Session closeWhere the session closed | 7681pts |
| Initial balance highTop of the first hour's range | 7717.75pts |
| Initial balance lowBottom of the first hour's range | 7680pts |
| InvalidationThe level that undoes today's read | 7733pts |
|---|---|
| Nearest naked POC aboveAn untested prior TPO point of control above price: the price row with the most TPO prints (time at price) | 7695pts |
| Nearest naked POC belowAn untested prior TPO point of control below price: the price row with the most TPO prints (time at price) | 7611pts |
| Balance area highUpper edge of the current multi-day balance | 7782.5pts |
| Balance area lowLower edge of the current multi-day balance | 7621.5pts |
| 1x balance extension up— no meaning text in the draft | 7943.5pts |
| 1x balance extension down— no meaning text in the draft | 7460.5pts |
Unfilled gaps · 2
| Gap 1Upper / lower edge of an unfilled gap | 7546.25 / 7520 |
|---|---|
| Gap 2Upper / lower edge of an unfilled gap | 7499 / 7472.75 |
All prices in index points on ESU2026. Meanings are the Meaning column of the post's level table.
Scenarios
Next session
1 scenarioHold below prev VAL → prior value becomes resistance
- Trigger
- close below 7715 pts (prev VAL)
- Invalid before
- close above 7715 pts (prev VAL)
- Invalid after
- close above 7733 pts (prev VAH)
- Target
- none
- Horizon
- 1 session
- Expires
- 2026-09-09 20:00 UTC
If a five-minute close holds below 7715 pts, prior value continues to sit overhead as resistance, a read that undoes itself if a five-minute close reclaims 7733 pts.
Prices are frozen at issue and never re-resolve to a later session's level.
Opening playbook
against the 2026-09-04 value area- Open above7733 pts (2026-09-04 value area high)Would put the prior value area back in play and challenge today's acceptance below it; watch for a hold or rejection of 7733 pts.
- Open insidethe 2026-09-04 value area (7715–7733 pts)Would return the auction to the 2026-09-04 value area; watch for a hold or rejection of 7715 pts.
- Open below7715 pts (2026-09-04 value area low)Would extend today's acceptance below prior value; the line in the sand stays 7733 pts.
Previous scenarios
| Scenario | Issued | Trigger | Outcome | Move (ATR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rejected low holds → rotation back to prev POC | 2026-09-04 | invalidated | none | — |
"Triggered" records that the trigger condition was met. It is not a correct call and is never scored as one.
The trigger at 7719 pts was never met; the pre-trigger invalidation at 7719 pts was met first, ending the horizon before any outcome could register.
Chart
Data note
How this post was made
- Observation cutoff: 2026-09-08T20:00:00+00:00. Nothing that happened after that instant informed this post.
- Prices are quoted on contract:ESU2026.
- Reconstructed replay: built from current rows, not from what was known at the time.
- The vol section is estimated: hv=estimated.
Section availability
Plain sentences are produced directly from the model readings. Text under a “Commentary” label was written by a language model from those readings only.