Tuesday 15 September 2026
Read
What changed
against the previous session13 levels moved · commentary
Levels that moved: initial balance high, initial balance low, invalidation, point of control, prior point of control, prior value area high, prior value area low, session close, session high, session low, session open, value area high, value area low.
The close type is now in the lower part of the range. The day type is now a normal-variation day. The open type is now an open-drive down. The volatility curve state is now flat.
The auction
1 sessionThe session closed below value.
Against prior value the letters read accepted below, on the strict beyond by 1 tick policy.
Today's value area migrated lower against yesterday's.
Balance status: balancing.
This read is invalidated on a close above 7715 pts (prior value area high).
The open read as an open-drive down and the letters read accepted below prior value, yet the range stayed inside the balance area. Value migrated lower, and the close sat inside the initial balance. The naked POC at 7703 pts was not touched by the range.
Drift
20–60 sessionsOver the last 20-60 sessions the Drift read is mixed, so no phase is assigned.
Price sits near its average, -0.89 ATR from its reference.
The efficiency ratio over that window is 0.23.
The move is quiet.
Direction remains mixed while daily ranges have turned quiet.Over these weeks the direction is mixed, and daily moves have been quiet, meaning price is not committing firmly to either side while its day-to-day swings shrink.
Volatility
estimatedThe volatility proxy VIX sits in its normal band at 17.2 (estimated). The term structure is flat. ATR(14) is 70.73 pts and the expected move for one session is 1.08%.
The two horizons. The auction read (1 session) and the Drift read (20-60 sessions) are orthogonal: there is no side to compare on this session.
Levels
| Prior value area highUpper edge of yesterday's value area | 7715pts |
|---|---|
| Prior value area lowLower edge of yesterday's value area | 7679pts |
| Prior point of controlYesterday's TPO point of control: the price row with the most TPO prints (time at price) | 7704pts |
| Value area highUpper edge of today's value area | 7661pts |
| Point of controlToday's TPO point of control: the price row with the most TPO prints (time at price) | 7656pts |
| Value area lowLower edge of today's value area | 7648pts |
| Session openWhere the session opened | 7684.5pts |
|---|---|
| Session highThe session's highest price | 7687pts |
| Session lowThe session's lowest price | 7643.5pts |
| Session closeWhere the session closed | 7657pts |
| Initial balance highTop of the first hour's range | 7687pts |
| Initial balance lowBottom of the first hour's range | 7654pts |
| InvalidationThe level that undoes today's read | 7715pts |
|---|---|
| Nearest naked POC aboveAn untested prior volume point of control above price: the price with the highest traded volume | 7703pts |
| Nearest naked POC belowAn untested prior TPO point of control below price: the price row with the most TPO prints (time at price) | 7656pts |
| Balance area highUpper edge of the current multi-day balance | 7782.5pts |
| Balance area lowLower edge of the current multi-day balance | 7585.5pts |
| 1x balance extension up— no meaning text in the draft | 7979.5pts |
| 1x balance extension down— no meaning text in the draft | 7388.5pts |
Unfilled gaps · 3
| Gap 1Upper / lower edge of an unfilled gap | 7726.75 / 7673.5 |
|---|---|
| Gap 2Upper / lower edge of an unfilled gap | 7614 / 7587.75 |
| Gap 3Upper / lower edge of an unfilled gap | 7566.75 / 7540.5 |
All prices in index points on ESZ2026. Meanings are the Meaning column of the post's level table.
Scenarios
Next session
1 scenarioHold below prev VAL → prior value becomes resistance
- Trigger
- close below 7679 pts (prev VAL)
- Invalid before
- close above 7679 pts (prev VAL)
- Invalid after
- close above 7715 pts (prev VAH)
- Target
- none
- Horizon
- 1 session
- Expires
- 2026-09-16 20:00 UTC
If a five-minute close holds below 7679 pts, prior value would set up as resistance; a five-minute close above 7679 pts before the trigger would invalidate it, and a five-minute close above 7715 pts after the trigger would undo it as well.
Prices are frozen at issue and never re-resolve to a later session's level.
Opening playbook
against the 2026-09-14 value area- Open above7715 pts (2026-09-14 value area high)Would put the prior value area back in play and challenge today's acceptance below it; watch for a hold or rejection of 7715 pts.
- Open insidethe 2026-09-14 value area (7679–7715 pts)Would return the auction to the 2026-09-14 value area; watch for a hold or rejection of 7679 pts.
- Open below7679 pts (2026-09-14 value area low)Would extend today's acceptance below prior value; the line in the sand stays 7715 pts.
Previous scenarios
| Scenario | Issued | Trigger | Outcome | Move (ATR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hold below prev VAL → prior value becomes resistance | 2026-09-14 | triggered | horizon end | 0.21 |
"Triggered" records that the trigger condition was met. It is not a correct call and is never scored as one.
The trigger, a close below 7733.75 pts, was met; over the horizon the move for the read was larger than the move against it, and it finished for it.
Chart
Data note
How this post was made
- Observation cutoff: 2026-09-15T20:00:00+00:00. Nothing that happened after that instant informed this post.
- Prices are quoted on contract:ESZ2026.
- Reconstructed replay: built from current rows, not from what was known at the time.
- The vol section is estimated: hv=estimated.
Section availability
Plain sentences are produced directly from the model readings. Text under a “Commentary” label was written by a language model from those readings only.