Friday 18 September 2026
Read
What changed
against the previous session14 levels moved · commentary
Levels that moved: balance area high, initial balance high, initial balance low, invalidation, point of control, prior point of control, prior value area high, prior value area low, session close, session high, session low, session open, value area high, value area low.
The acceptance read is now failed acceptance below. Value migration is now overlapping lower. The drift location band is now near its average. The close type is now in the top fifth of the range. The day type is now a neutral-extreme day. The open type is now an open-test-drive down. The rotation trend is now stable.
The auction
1 sessionThe session closed above value.
Against prior value the letters read failed acceptance below, on the strict beyond by 1 tick policy.
Today's value area migrated overlapping lower against yesterday's.
Balance status: balancing.
This read is invalidated on a close below 7694 pts (prior value area low).
The open read as an open-test-drive down, yet the close sat in the top fifth of the range. The letters read failed acceptance below prior value, yet against prior value the close was above; value migrated overlapping lower. The naked POC at 7735.75 pts was not touched by the range. A close below 7694 pts would undo this read.
Drift
20–60 sessionsOver the last 20-60 sessions the Drift read is mixed, so no phase is assigned.
Price sits near its average, -0.37 ATR from its reference.
The efficiency ratio over that window is 0.11.
The move is quiet.
Over these weeks the direction is mixed, and price sits near its average.That means the recent lookbacks do not establish a consistent direction, so the model is not assigning a phase within any single leg right now. Daily moves have also been quiet, in keeping with a market that has not made a decisive move either way.
Volatility
estimatedThe volatility proxy VIX sits in its low band at 14.81 (estimated). The term structure is contango. ATR(14) is 75.81 pts and the expected move for one session is 0.93%.
The two horizons. The auction read (1 session) and the Drift read (20-60 sessions) are orthogonal: there is no side to compare on this session.
Levels
| Prior value area highUpper edge of yesterday's value area | 7712pts |
|---|---|
| Prior value area lowLower edge of yesterday's value area | 7694pts |
| Prior point of controlYesterday's TPO point of control: the price row with the most TPO prints (time at price) | 7705pts |
| Value area highUpper edge of today's value area | 7707pts |
| Point of controlToday's TPO point of control: the price row with the most TPO prints (time at price) | 7691pts |
| Value area lowLower edge of today's value area | 7683pts |
| Session openWhere the session opened | 7710pts |
|---|---|
| Session highThe session's highest price | 7718.25pts |
| Session lowThe session's lowest price | 7675pts |
| Session closeWhere the session closed | 7712.25pts |
| Initial balance highTop of the first hour's range | 7714.5pts |
| Initial balance lowBottom of the first hour's range | 7683.25pts |
| InvalidationThe level that undoes today's read | 7694pts |
|---|---|
| Nearest naked POC aboveAn untested prior TPO point of control above price: the price row with the most TPO prints (time at price) | 7735.75pts |
| Nearest naked POC belowAn untested prior TPO point of control below price: the price row with the most TPO prints (time at price) | 7691pts |
| Balance area highUpper edge of the current multi-day balance | 7718.25pts |
| Balance area lowLower edge of the current multi-day balance | 7575pts |
Unfilled gaps · 3
| Gap 1Upper / lower edge of an unfilled gap | 7726.75 / 7673.5 |
|---|---|
| Gap 2Upper / lower edge of an unfilled gap | 7713.5 / 7622 |
| Gap 3Upper / lower edge of an unfilled gap | 7566.75 / 7540.5 |
All prices in index points on ESZ2026. Meanings are the Meaning column of the post's level table.
Scenarios
Next session
1 scenarioReturn inside value → rotation to prev VAH
- Trigger
- close inside the range
- Invalid before
- close below 7694 pts (prev VAL)
- Invalid after
- close below 7694 pts (prev VAL)
- Target
- touch of 7712 pts (prev VAH)
- Horizon
- 1 session
- Expires
- 2026-09-21 20:00 UTC
If a five-minute close returns inside the range bounded by 7694 pts and 7712 pts, invalidated by a five-minute close below 7694 pts, this points toward a five-minute touch of 7712 pts within the horizon.
Prices are frozen at issue and never re-resolve to a later session's level.
Opening playbook
against the 2026-09-17 value area- Open above7712 pts (2026-09-17 value area high)Would move the auction away from today's failed attempt and toward the other edge; watch for a hold or rejection of 7712 pts.
- Open insidethe 2026-09-17 value area (7694–7712 pts)Would return the auction to the 2026-09-17 value area, where today's failed attempt left it; watch for a hold or rejection of 7694 pts.
- Open below7694 pts (2026-09-17 value area low)Would retry the acceptance that failed today; a hold beyond 7694 pts would reverse today's read.
Previous scenarios
| Scenario | Issued | Trigger | Outcome | Move (ATR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hold above prev VAH → prior value becomes support | 2026-09-17 | triggered | horizon end | 0.07 |
"Triggered" records that the trigger condition was met. It is not a correct call and is never scored as one.
The trigger, a hold above 7700 pts, was met; the move against it was larger than the move for it, and it finished slightly in its favor.
Chart
Data note
How this post was made
- Observation cutoff: 2026-09-18T20:00:00+00:00. Nothing that happened after that instant informed this post.
- Prices are quoted on contract:ESZ2026.
- Reconstructed replay: built from current rows, not from what was known at the time.
- The vol section is estimated: hv=estimated.
Section availability
Plain sentences are produced directly from the model readings. Text under a “Commentary” label was written by a language model from those readings only.